Race Time Predictor

Predict your race finish time based on your current performance.

Inputs

Results

Enter your race result to predict future performance

Predictions use Riegel's formula. Actual performance depends on training.

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How the Race Time Predictor Works

Riegel Formula: T2 = T1 × (D2 ÷ D1)^1.06

This tool uses the scientific Riegel formula to predict your time at a new distance based on your performance at another distance. The formula accounts for the fact that pace slows as distance increases.

  1. 1

    Enter Previous Race

    Input the distance and time of a race you completed

  2. 2

    Set Target Distance

    Select the distance you want to predict

  3. 3

    View Prediction

    The tool calculates your predicted time and pace

Use Cases

Marathon Planning

Predict marathon time from 10K or half marathon performance

Goal Setting

Set realistic goals for upcoming races

Race Selection

Know if you're ready for a certain distance

Tips

  • 1

    Use a recent race result (within 2-3 months)

  • 2

    Predictions are more accurate between similar distances

  • 3

    Distance-specific training improves actual results

  • 4

    Weather and course affect actual performance

Common Mistakes

  • Using training run results instead of actual race results

  • Predicting marathon from only a 5K race

  • Ignoring the need for distance-specific training

  • Expecting major improvements without additional training

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are predictions?
Very accurate between similar distances, less accurate for marathon from 5K.
Which distance is best for prediction?
Half marathon best predicts marathon, 10K best predicts half marathon.
Why is my actual performance different?
Training, nutrition, weather, and race-day psychology all affect performance.

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